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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-01-25T02:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-25T02:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18969/-1
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the NW in in STEREO A COR2 and to the N in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source of this CME is unclear due to a SDO/AIA data outage during the event and a data gap in STEREO A EUVI. The speculative source is AR12935 (N26E04) based off of an apparent eruption signature seen after the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-28T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18971/1
Model Inputs:
2022-01-25T02:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=6.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=392.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-01-25T11:44Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-28T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-28T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220125_114400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 67.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2022-01-25T20:01Z

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